Method · Problem solving

Premortem: how to run it

Before starting a project, imagine it has already failed and have everyone write down why — then change the plan to prevent the likeliest causes.

40 minutes5 stepsProblem solving
Other methods

When it helps

Use it just before committing to something expensive or hard to undo — a launch, a migration, a big hire, a move — when the team may be too optimistic or too polite to voice doubts.

When to use something else

Skip it for small, reversible decisions; and do not run it so late that nothing can change. It is a planning tool, not a ritual before a decision already made.

How to run it, step by step

  1. Share the plan4 min
    • Two minutes on what we are about to do and by when.
  2. Imagine it failed2 min
    • It is a year from now and it went badly. Picture it.
  3. Write reasons alone8 min
    • Each person writes every reason they can think of for the failure.
  4. Read out, one at a time10 min
    • Go round the room, one reason each, until all are on the board.
  5. Rank and fix16 min
    • Which reasons are most likely and most damaging? What do we change now, and who owns it?

What comes out — an example

Made up, to show the shape.

Plan. Move all customers to new pricing on 1 April.

Reasons it failed. Large customers were not warned personally (5 people); billing could not handle mid-month changes (3); support was not ready (2).

Changes. Personal calls to the top 50 customers in February (Sales); test mid-month billing in January (Ana).

Where it comes from

The psychologist Gary Klein described the premortem in the Harvard Business Review in 2007.

Questions

What is a premortem?

A planning exercise where a team imagines a project has failed and works out why, so the plan can be changed before it starts.

Why does imagining failure help?

Explaining a failure that has “already happened” makes it easier for people to raise doubts they would otherwise keep to themselves.

How is a premortem different from a post-mortem?

A post-mortem looks back at a failure after it happens; a premortem imagines one before the work starts, while there is still time to prevent it.

Other methods

Five whysAsk “why?” about a problem, then about the answer, and keep going — usually around five times — until you reach a cause you can actually fix.Walk the boardRun a team stand-up by going through the work board from right to left — what is nearly done first — instead of person by person, so the talk is about finishing work.Parking lotA visible list where topics that come up but do not belong in this meeting are written down, so they are not lost and the meeting stays on track.TimeboxingGive each part of a meeting or task a fixed amount of time, and stop when it runs out — then decide whether to continue, move on, or come back to it.Lean CoffeeA meeting with no agenda until it starts: everybody writes topics, the group votes, and you talk about the most popular ones in short, timed rounds.Fishbowl discussionA few people talk in an inner circle while everyone else listens from around them; listeners can step in by taking an empty chair, so a large group can hold one real conversation.

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